Residents of some northeastern Jalisco towns looked up in surprise on Monday. A small single-prop plane flying overhead could be seen dropping pieces of paper. Blowing in the wind and spinning to the ground like leaves. Unfortunately not a coupon nor redeemable for a prize. But instead propaganda leaflets from the ambitious and ever-expanding so-called Jalisco cartel (CJNG). The method of delivery isn't something often used, though the message was nothing unusual. Typical claims of ridding rivals from the area. The incident shows the length some are willing to go to pass out propaganda. But also, a reminder of the importance of information warfare during a conflict. An aspect that CJNG has over the years shown they're quite capable at.
I did check the historical flight data available. But unfortunately, I didn't see anything. Presumably the plane was flying with it's transponder off. I imagine it wasn't up in the air long and stayed low.
Not the first
If we look back to July of last year. We can see reports in Zitácuaro, Michoacán about "thousands of flyers" suspected to be from CJNG. Reports from 2019 along the Michoacán border in Guerrero talk of leaflets dropped from a plane. Also suspected to be from CJNG. Like those dropped on Monday, the focus was on a rival criminal. Going back to 2017 in the state of Mexico. We see an incident involving leaflets thrown from not a plane but a helicopter. This happened during the International Horse Fair of Texcoco. Signed by a so-called "La Familia Unida" or "The United Family."
Airborne leaflet propaganda as Wikipedia labels it, is nothing new. Used by the military for decades to get messages behind enemy lines. The article states:
Airborne leaflets have been used for military propaganda purposes at least since the 19th century. One early example is from the Franco-Prussian War when, in October 1870 during the Siege of Paris, a French balloon coming from the city dropped government proclamations over Prussian troops that stated the following (in German):
"Paris defies the enemy. The whole of France rallies. Death to the invaders. Foolish people, shall we always throttle one another for the pleasure and proudness of Kings? Glory and conquest are crimes; defeat brings hate and desire for vengeance. Only one war is just and holy; that of independence"
A notable recent example is leaflets dropped by Iraqi Army Aviation. Aimed at seeking information about now-deceased former Daesh leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi. I'm sure they're even more recent examples from places like Yemen and Afghanistan.
An explainer from the U.S. Office of War Information Psychological Warfare Team many decades ago puts it bluntly.
Psychological warfare—or propaganda, to use a simpler word—is the science of using words and ideas as weapons. It has two targets—the enemy, and the people of the countries he has invaded. It has two purposes—to weaken the morale of the enemy and thus reduce his fighting efficiency and to encourage resistance on the part of the people living in occupied territories.
Thus, a piece of paper can become a potent weapon. That is why today, in all theaters of war, millions of leaflets are being dropped from military aircraft.
The leaflet approach to the people in occupied countries is entirely different, yet the primary weapon is the same—news.
By citing the truth about Allied victories you can strengthen the people's will to resist.
By warning the people to leave areas which are being bombed you can win their friendship.
By dropping small gifts of hard-to-get commodities you can strengthen this bond of friendship, so that they will help American airmen who are forced [shot] down in their neighborhood. And when the time comes, you can utilize leaflets to swing the underground into action.
I often think of a quote, "to inform is to influence." By informing someone about something, you're having an influence on them. What's explained above is no different than what's happening in Ukraine. That is, the government is actively working to take footage and information from the battlefield and relay it to the world. Sure, some of it has been exaggerated. But the majority of it hasn't, with imagery to back it up.
What I want to get across is that propaganda isn't only falsehood. It can take form as affirmation and to strengthen current beliefs, like what is directed at those in support of Ukraine. Sometimes the question isn't what's being revealed. But what isn't. Troop causalities on the Ukraine side are certainly not near zero. Though there is little discussion of it. Most focus is on Russian troop causalities. On the flip side, it can be used to question and point out falsehoods of current beliefs as well. Like what is directed at Russian troops and the Russian civilian population. In both instances, the information is essentially the same but crafted for different purposes.
Russia to combat this, does the same thing. Making sure to point out all the atrocities of the West while acknowledging little of their own. The Economist writes in 2008:
SOVIET propagandists during the cold war were trained in a tactic that their western interlocutors nicknamed “whataboutism”. Any criticism of the Soviet Union (Afghanistan, martial law in Poland, imprisonment of dissidents, censorship) was met with a “What about...” (apartheid South Africa, jailed trade-unionists, the Contras in Nicaragua, and so forth).
It is not a bad tactic. Every criticism needs to be put in a historical and geographical context. a country that has solved most of its horrible problems deserves praise, not to be lambasted for those that remain. Similarly, behaviour that may be imperfect by international standards can be quite good for a particular neighbourhood.
But it can be overdone—and in the case of Soviet propagandists, it was, and gave rise to subversive jokes. For example: A caller to a radio program asks, “What is the average wage of an American manual worker?” A long pause ensues. Then the answer comes: “U nich negrov linchuyut” (“Over there they lynch Negroes”)—a phrase that, by the time of the Soviet collapse, had become a synecdoche for Soviet propaganda as a whole.
Reading these, both of which contain racist, now frowned upon words used to belittle the identity of the enemy. Escapades in the name of supposed "denazification" of a country, that has a Jewish leader, should surprise no one.
What the message might reveal
In these latest leaflets, the messaging is directed at civilians, not the state. It wasn't to denounce state corruption but instead a rival boss. Which I think can tell us a couple of things. Let's speculate.
This conflict CJNG has arisen is with the Sinaloa Cartel (CDS) and not the state. That isn't to claim a reason for it or that it's only between them. But they are the two main parties. The focus on rival and not state might suggest a more cohesive state than less. In other words, the state is effective in providing protection to criminals. If it wasn't, CJNG might be more inclined to direct their conflict towards the state as opposed to a rival. But by directing it towards the rival. They somewhat acknowledge respect for the authority of the state. While they do mention corruption. Saying corrupt authorities are assisting the rival. It appears direct and not a blanket claim. Still, we can't gather any reason why CJNG pursued this conflict. If due to the group's own want and will. Though hard to define since any criminal group consists of an array of outside influences. Another option, the state invited them in to shuffle around the criminal landscape. Who knows. But when they say that the state has been informed the fight is not against them. What they don't say is that that is because the state has either welcomed, allowed, or not prohibited their entry. If the conflict was directed at the state, the leaflet would still claim a cleaning of criminals. But it would also presumably claim the reason they (CJNG) must do this is due to an incompetent and corrupt state. Since they aren't apparently stepping on all toes just certain ones. I think it's safe to say they've been given the nod by the state in some shape or form.
It's worth remembering that power brokers regardless of where they sit are very selfish. While they might align together on some aspects. Ultimately, they all have individual interests. Let's suppose a white-collar don might align with a blue-collar don to back CDS as the home team criminal crew, worthy of protection. But still, they have separate interests. Now, let's say the white-collar don retires and another one replaces him. The new white-collar don now working alongside the old still in power blue-collar don. Then one day new white-collar don decides he doesn't like those CDS guys and instead wants to align with CJNG. This disagreement between dons is where it all starts. If diplomacy fails, violence increases and things escalate out of back rooms onto streets. The hypothetical above would be interactions with the private sector. Interactions with the state work the same. The dons are not heads of private sectors but agencies in the state. Elected or bureaucrats, power brokers exist at all levels of the state. Regardless of the players, what's important to understand is that conflict often arises from shifting alliances. Think how triggered Russia is with Ukraine reconsidering its alliances. In Mexico, it explains the increase in violence around and following elections. Alliances are broken up and new ones created.
Criminals and civilians
Which brings us to the hearts and minds. Any change in leadership, whether in the state or criminal sphere, goes a lot smoother when you've got the average folk on your side. Getting the people on your side becomes a lot easier when you get the information you want in front of them. Accomplished through lies or not makes little difference. What matters is if they're on your side. But with a free press, a balance is required. You can only stretch the truth but so much. What CJNG claims is plausible. Which is why it is works. If they dropped leaflets attempting to sell a racket by saying AMLO is coming to town tomorrow with tanks to take their things. People would laugh because it's blatantly false. Those most skilled at propaganda have mastered this balancing act, mixing truth and falsehood.
Interactions between criminal actors and civilians often take the form of extortion schemes. A protection racket is where the racketeers agree to defend. While an extortion racket is where the racketeers agree not to attack. Often where the state is ineffective, is where you will see protection rackets arise. Since the cops and courts can't be counted on. Instead, people pay criminal groups to deter crime. On the flip side in places with a state that is effective and capable, like say CDMX. You tend to see more extortion rackets.
Though these lines often become blurred in practical terms. Important to know is that these schemes work due to credible threats of violence. But also credible protection provided. The civilian population does hold a level of power in this interaction. If the group selling protection ends up instead supplying mostly violence. The populous might revolt.
We have seen this most evidently in Michoacán. Groups like Los Viagras and Familia Michoacán have been the traditional providers of protection. But their inability to do so effectively and without some of their own causing problems dwindles as time goes on. This paired with an incohesive state, one viewed as untrustworthy. Produces a situation where the civilians take up arms to defend themselves. In short, this creates a lot of drama on all levels. Many alliances within alliances all vying for power. Which in turn opens up an environment where CJNG can come in and claim they are the good guys here to rid the bad guys. Which we all know is bullshit. It's only a matter of time before their effectiveness dwindles. Less protecting and more extorting. They might temporarily rid the bad guys but history repeats. Oh boy does it ever.
"I got Harlem, Richie. I took care of Harlem, and now Harlem is gonna take care of me. You can believe that." — Frank Lucas, American Gangster
In Putin's perfect world, CJNG would move in and rid any presence CDS holds within a matter of days. Impossible. But time-to-completion will depend in part on how much support CDS currently holds among the people. Even if state leadership allowed it, the civilians can still resist. This is why Russia is so fucked in Ukraine. Even if they install a puppet government. They'll still face tremendous resistance from the people. And this my friends is why information warfare is important.
One cannot win a conflict with bombs alone but must weaponize words as well. To spread your truth whatever it may be. Having the people on your side is a must. CJNG knows this and so has decided to performatively rain down leaflets to those hearts and minds they hope to take care of. The goal to one day themselves be taken care of.